Thursday, September 01, 2005

KATRINA: THE GREATEST HURRICANE EVER?


This is NOT an understatement: Hurricane Katrina will go down in history as the most destructive Hurricane ever. Yes, other storms have taken more lives. The Galveston, Texas Hurricane of 1900 killed more than 8,000 people. Yes, other storms have been stronger. The "Labor Day" Hurricane of 1935 set the record for lowest barometric pressure (26.35") and packed sustained winds of 160 mph as it slammed into the Florida Keys. Hurricane Camille struck Southern Mississippi with sustained winds of 190 mph and gusts over 200 mph back in 1969. Hurricane Andrew devastated portions of Southern Florida in 1992 with 165 mph winds. Camille, Andrew, and the Florida Keys Storm are the only Category 5 Hurricanes to strike the U-S mainland in recorded history.
Yet, Katrina's weaker Category 4 winds of 140 mph will end up doing more damage and affecting more lives then those storms mentioned above. How can this be? The answer lies not just in each storm's strength. Its a combination of power, population and topography.

POWER
Make no mistake, Katrina was a monster storm. Her sustained wind speeds actually reached 175 mph Sunday afternoon as she crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Closer to landfall, Katrina weakened and was actually downgraded to a Category 3 storm while moving over Biloxi, Mississippi Monday morning. Still, this major hurricane was capable of much destruction.

POPULATION
Katrina did something, though, that the stronger storms did not. Katrina was very large in size. She hit an area four states wide containing a major metropolitan population center, New Orleans. Compare that to Camille, which hit smaller cities in less populated areas of Southern Mississippi and Alabama. Andrew was intense, but he was also very small in size. His devastation was limited to a relatively small area in South Florida.

TOPOGRAPHY
Here's where Katrina really tips the scale. She made landfall over the most vulnerable section of coastline in the United States. New Orleans lies 6 to 10 feet BELOW sea level and is surrounded by Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south. The city and its 500,000 residents are protected from these encroaching waters by 15 to 20 foot tall earthen dikes that literally surround the city. In other words: New Orleans is built in a bowl. A bowl that would fill with water if the dikes ever broke.

WORST CASE SCENARIO
The last time New Orleans took a direct hit from a major Hurricane was Betsy back in 1965. She was a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. The city suffered major wind damage and massive flooding. That prompted Congress to authorize the construction of the dikes that currently surround the city. But these dikes were built to withstand only a Category 3 Hurricane. For decades, Meteorologists have worried about what they call the "Worst Case Scenario:" A direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane on New Orleans. The thinking was if the eye of a Category 4 or 5 storm moved just WEST of New Orleans, the entire city would suffer catestrophic damage. Keep in mind, the strongest winds and highest storm surge occur on the right side of a Hurricane's eyewall. If a storm's eye moved just west of the city, the worst of the storms fury would crash into New Orleans. Devastating winds and storm surges 20 feet high would likely smash the protective dikes and flood the entire city.

A NEAR MISS?
For a few hours after Katrina passed, residents and city officials in New Orleans thought they had really dodged the weather bullet. The eye of Katrina had moved just EAST of the city. The highest winds and storm surge hit Biloxi and Gulfport, Mississippi. The "Worst Case Scenario" did not happen. Yes, there was wind damage but the city was still standing and the winds and waves had moved on. Or so they thought. As Monday night fell, few noticed water streaming through two sections of damaged dike just north of downtown.

DELAYED DEVASTATION
By Monday night, water from Lake Pontchartrain was gushing through two gaping holes in the earthen dams. The eye of Katrina had moved EAST of town, but not far enough east. Portions of the western eyewall passed over Lake Pontchartrain exposing the area to battering winds between 120 and 130 mph. This was enough to wash away several hundred feet of dike. All day Tuesday, water flowed into downtown. Before many residents could react, high water had trapped them in their homes. As water levels climbed higher, many were trapped and drowned inside their homes. Many chose to seek shelter in an upper floor or attic. As the rising waters closed in around them, many survived only by forcing their way through the roof to await rescue.

We have witnessed for the first time in our lifetime, the destruction of a major city. New Orleans, as we have known it, has ceased to exist. It will take months and years to recover from Katrina. Most water-logged homes will have to be demolished. Businesses and commerce will not operate in the area for many months to come. Hurricane Andrew is officially the costliest storm on record doing an estimated 26.5-billion dollars in damage to South Florida. I expect Katrina's cost to be 50 to 100-BILLION dollars!

Posted at 1:24 AM by Mark Johnson

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